These figures are probabilities, not predictions of a result: 32 % means that in about every three races like this, Antonelli would win one. Stage S0 only uses the recent form of teams and drivers; with practice and qualifying the model becomes more precise, which is why it is frozen and compared with the real result.
Model probabilities, Brazilian GP (stage S0)
| Driver | Win | Pole | Podium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 32,4 % | 32,1 % | 67,1 % |
| Max Verstappen | 20,8 % | 17,5 % | 54,5 % |
| Lewis Hamilton | 12,3 % | 13,3 % | 40,4 % |
| Lando Norris | 11,5 % | 11,3 % | 39,2 % |
| Charles Leclerc | 11,3 % | 12,8 % | 39,6 % |
| George Russell | 7,5 % | 9,1 % | 31,1 % |
Source: Formuradar master model, stage S0 (form only, before practice), computed on 5-11-2026. Estimates, not results.
How to read it
The model shares out 100 % among the drivers: Antonelli at 32 % is neither certain nor likely, he is the favourite in a race with a lot of uncertainty. The three after Verstappen are almost level (11-12 %). Until qualifying the grid is not settled; at Interlagos, moreover, pole guarantees nothing (it won in 54 % of races with data).
How much to trust it
Stage S0 is the weakest: it only knows form, not the weekend. The forward test, with forecasts frozen before each session and compared with what happened, is on the accuracy page, with a sample that is still small. This is not betting advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite at the 2026 Brazilian GP?
Antonelli, with a 32.4 % chance of winning according to the model before practice; Verstappen has 20.8 %.
Is this forecast reliable?
It is the weakest stage (recent form only) and changes with practice and qualifying. The forward test is on the accuracy page.
Sources
Figures and quotes come from the linked sources and may have changed since.
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