Saturday's qualifying on 24 October will give the real pole and Sunday's race will show who wins. Meanwhile this article gathers what our data says: who is the favourite according to the model, how the teams have run here and which circuits resemble Austin.
Team performance at Austin (last 8 editions, 2017-2025)
| Team | Average finishing place | Points across the 8 editions |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | 5,0 | 221 |
| Ferrari | 6,3 | 201 |
| Mercedes | 6,3 | 185 |
| McLaren | 8,9 | 100 |
| Williams, Haas and Alpine | between 13th and 15th on average | few points |
Two cars per team and edition. Names are those of each era (Renault, AlphaTauri, Racing Point…) and are grouped with the current team when it is the same.
Probability of winning the race (model, before practice)
Probability of taking pole (model, before practice)
Circuits that resemble Austin: mix of corners and straights
| Circuit | Slow corners | Fast corners | Straights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (this circuit) | 29,5 % | 27,9 % | 12,4 % |
| Hockenheim | 27,0 % | 27,5 % | 15,1 % |
| Estambul (Istanbul Park) | 29,9 % | 28,3 % | 14,9 % |
| Yas Marina | 28,6 % | 26,0 % | 15,9 % |
| Baréin | 26,0 % | 27,1 % | 15,2 % |
Share of lap time in each type of zone, from the telemetry of every recorded lap at each circuit.
How the teams run at Austin
Red Bull has the best average finishing place over the last eight editions (5.0) and 221 points. Ferrari and Mercedes are level on average place (6.3), with 201 and 185 points. McLaren trails with an average of 8.9. With two cars per team and edition the sample is small, and the rules have changed several times since 2012.
Which circuits resemble Austin
Austin splits its lap time like this: 29.5% in slow corners, 30.3% in medium ones, 27.9% in fast ones and 12.4% on straights. Hockenheim, Istanbul, Yas Marina and Bahrain are the circuits with the closest split. Resembling each other in telemetry does not guarantee the car behaves the same; it is a starting point.
Who arrives as favourite
Antonelli leads the model for pole (33.4%) and the win (33.6%). Verstappen is second (15.9% and 19.3%), ahead of Norris. At Austin the winner has started from around second on the grid on average, and only twice has someone won from outside the top three. Hamilton has 5 wins here and Verstappen 4.
What changes with practice
The figures here are from before practice: the model only uses the recent form of teams and drivers. Once the laps from Friday's FP1, FP2 and FP3 are loaded, the predicted pole will be based on the best practice lap, and the probabilities will be recalculated if the model has that data.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite for pole at Austin 2026?
Antonelli, with a 33% probability according to the model before practice; behind him Verstappen (16%).
Who has won most often at Austin?
Hamilton, with 5 wins; Verstappen, with 4. The pole-sitter has won 46% of editions (6 of 13).
Is the predicted pole reliable?
In the 14-circuit 2025-26 test the median error was 0.5 s. It places the pole in context; it cannot call the tenth of a second.
Will the article change after Friday's practice?
Only if FP1, FP2 and FP3 are loaded into our database. Until then, the figures stay as they are.
Sources
- Formuradar · Previa del GP y pole prevista
- Formuradar · Circuito de Austin (Circuit of the Americas)
- Formuradar · Resultados 2026 (datos de Jolpica/Ergast)
Figures and quotes come from the linked sources and may have changed since.
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